Oscar Predictions_ Best Picture (s)

Roger Ebert said that he thinks "True Grit" will win the Oscar for Best Picture because it got ten nominations. Peter Travers of "Rolling Stone" projects voters will choose "The Social Network" because last year's winner "The Hurt Locker" suggests Oscar-voters may be slightly more hip than the ones who chose "Driving Miss Daisy" just over ten years ago.

But, ultimately, even though I think it's only a moderately good film myself, I have to agree with David Thomson of "The New Republic" who feels the voters are going to pick "The King's Speech." Ironically, his magazine wrote an article questioning how historically accurate the film was. As Thomson states the film has picked up momentum, both critically and with the public, as it has surprisingly made over $100 million at the box office. And, it's later release date seems to make it a more likely choice than previous favorite "The Social Network."

So, here is a run-down of who I think will win/should win or in some cases who I would vote for (not always the same choice I think is the best).

This is the first of six entries of two blogs, so I will not overwhelm blog readers with all of the categories, including Best Sound Mixing here today.

But, I am going to focus on the four feature-length film categories in this particular entry: Those are Best Picture, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature and Best Documentary Feature.

On our other blog "Politics, Culture and Wastes of Time," I will make projections regarding the four acting categories.


BEST PICTURE:

Who will win: "The King's Speech"
Who should win: "The Black Swan" (which was my overall pick for best film of the year.)
Who I would vote for: "The Social Network." David Fincher's film was a close second on my 20 best films of 2010 list, and it would be great to see a solid film win rather than a movie that is essentially, as well-acted as it might be, a royal family soap opera- and, one that is not quite as witty as "The Queen."

Best Animated Feature:

Projection: "Toy Story 3." I have not seen the other nominees, but this as of a guarantee as the fact that Duke University would assuredly beat Roanoke Catholic High School in a basketball game.

Best Documentary Feature:

Will win: "Restrepo"_ this is a gut feeling, but it seems like this apolitical documentary about American soliders figthing in Afghanistan is the kind of film that Oscar-voters will go for even though I thought the film was disappointing myself. It is more or less like "The Hurt Locker," but not nearly as well-done.

Should win: "Inside Job"- along with most film critics, I think this hard-hitting film about Wall Street insider trading is the best documentary of 2010.


Best Foreign Language Film:

Will win: "Bitiful" (Mexico). The film has a familiar actor in Javier Bardem who won a Best Supporting Actor Oscar for "No Country for Old Men" which gives it a major advantage.

Should win: "Dogtooth" (Greece). I have not seen the film, but it has garnered the best critical praise of the five films nominated.

For more Oscar projections, go to our other blog:

http://www.politicscultureandotherwastesoft.blogspot.com